Analysis
Arsenal’s Secret Formula Revealed: The Key Stats That Could Win Them the Premier League!

The race for the Premier League title is heating up as teams enter the second half of the 2024/25 campaign. Arsenal, currently second in the table with 36 points after 18 games, has demonstrated significant strength both offensively and defensively. A deeper look into the open-play expected goals (xG) data reveals fascinating insights into their performance relative to other teams in the league.
Arsenal’s Open Play xG Overview

Source: Data Analytics EPL
The xG chart highlights how Arsenal stands out as a well-balanced team. They are positioned in the quadrant representing high xG scored and low xG conceded, showcasing their ability to create quality chances while maintaining defensive solidity. Arsenal’s open-play xG scored reflects their attacking prowess, driven by key players like Gabriel Jesus, Martinelli, and the creative contributions of captain Martin Ødegaard.
Defensively, Arsenal has kept their xG conceded among the lowest in the league, thanks to the formidable partnership of William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães at the back, supported by Declan Rice’s shielding presence in midfield. This balance between attack and defense has been a hallmark of Mikel Arteta’s philosophy, emphasizing structured buildup play and resilience in defense.
Comparison to Other Teams

LONDON, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 27: Mikel Merino of Arsenal during the Premier League match between Arsenal FC and Liverpool FC at Emirates Stadium on October 27, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
Liverpool, who lead the table, also excel in high xG scored but slightly lag behind Arsenal in xG conceded. Their attacking fluidity has been unmatched, but Arsenal’s defensive edge keeps them competitive.
Manchester City and Chelsea exhibit strong attacking metrics but are let down by higher xG conceded, indicating vulnerabilities in their defense.
Tottenham Hotspur, despite generating a high xG scored, sit further down the table due to their defensive frailties, as reflected by their higher xG conceded.
Teams like Nottingham Forest and Newcastle also perform well in balancing xG scored and conceded but fall short of Arsenal’s consistency.
Strengths Driving Arsenal’s Performance
1. Creativity in Attack: Arsenal’s ability to break down deep defensive blocks, as seen against Ipswich Town recently, contributes significantly to their high xG. The movement and interplay between Trossard, Saka, and Martinelli ensure chances are created consistently.
2. Defensive Organization: Arsenal’s low xG conceded is a testament to their organized backline and the influence of Declan Rice. The team has minimized high-quality chances for opponents, controlling possession and dictating the tempo.
3. Consistency in Game Management: Unlike some rivals who concede sloppy goals or lose momentum, Arsenal remains composed, reflecting in their open-play metrics.
Challenges Ahead

LONDON, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 11: Bukayo Saka of Arsenal celebrates scoring his team’s second goal during the UEFA Champions League 2024/25 League Phase MD6 match between Arsenal FC and AS Monaco at Emirates Stadium on December 11, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
While Arsenal’s current standing in the xG chart is impressive, they face challenges in maintaining this performance. Key injuries, such as Bukayo Saka’s extended absence, may affect their creativity and goal output. Additionally, breaking down low blocks—a recurring issue as highlighted by Declan Rice after the Ipswich game—remains an area for improvement.
Conclusion
Arsenal’s xG metrics underline their status as genuine title contenders. Their balance between attacking efficiency and defensive solidity has been key to their success so far. With tactical adjustments and the return of injured stars like Saka in the future, Arsenal is well-positioned to challenge Liverpool for the Premier League crown. The next few fixtures will test their consistency and resolve in maintaining their impressive xG performance.
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