Arsenal’s Shocking Decline: The Stats That Prove Their Title Challenge Is Slipping Away

As Arsenal navigates the 2024/25 Premier League season, a comparison with their previous campaign offers insight into their progress—or lack thereof. With 27 games played in both seasons, the numbers highlight key areas where Mikel Arteta’s side has improved, stagnated, or regressed.

Points and Position: A Slight Drop-Off

At this stage last season, Arsenal had amassed 61 points, whereas they currently sit on 54 points, a seven-point decline. Despite this, the Gunners are currently second in the table, one place higher than they were at this stage in 2023/24. However, this is largely due to Manchester City’s inconsistent form rather than Arsenal’s own dominance.

The equivalent fixture comparison paints a similar picture. Against the same opponents, Arsenal had 60 points last season, six more than their current tally. This suggests that rather than facing tougher opposition, the drop in points is due to their own inconsistencies.

Goals For and Against: A Worrying Trend

A significant concern for Arsenal this season has been their attacking output. Last season, the Gunners had scored 68 goals after 27 games, but this time, they have only managed 51, a 17-goal drop. This decline suggests that Arsenal’s frontline has struggled to replicate last season’s efficiency, despite boasting quality attackers like Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, and Martin Ødegaard.

On the defensive end, Arsenal conceded 23 goals after 27 games last season, a number that has remained steady at 24 this season. However, the decline in their attacking returns has meant their goal difference has taken a major hit, dropping from +45 to +28, a 17-goal swing.

Expected Goals (xG) and Key Match Differences

The xG statistics indicate that Arsenal’s overall attacking threat has diminished. In the 23/24 season, their xG per match was 2.39, which has now fallen to 1.89. Meanwhile, their expected goals against (xGA) per match has slightly increased, suggesting that they have been more vulnerable at the back.

A match-by-match comparison further reveals key setbacks. Arsenal has underperformed in fixtures like the 1-1 draw against Brighton, which they won 4-2 last season, and the 0-1 home loss to West Ham, a game they won 3-1 last campaign. These results highlight crucial missed opportunities that have cost them points.

Discipline and Physicality

One area where Arsenal has seen some improvement is discipline. Last season, they picked up 62 yellow cards, but this has dropped to 52 so far in 2024/25. However, they have received more red cards (five compared to two), which could indicate lapses in concentration or frustration in difficult moments.

Conclusion: A Season of Regression?

While Arsenal remains in a strong league position, the statistics clearly show a regression from last season. Their attacking numbers have dipped considerably, and while their defense has remained stable, it hasn’t been enough to compensate for their struggles in front of goal.

With 11 games remaining, Arsenal still has time to close the gap on Liverpool. However, unless they rediscover their scoring touch, their hopes of a Premier League title could be fading fast.