Arsenal’s Attack Is Breaking the Stats! How Arteta’s Side Is Defying xG to Stay in the Title Race

Arsenal have been making waves in the Premier League this season, and their performance in expected goals (xG) statistics further highlights their attacking efficiency. As of February 18, 2025, the Gunners have outperformed their xG by a remarkable margin, positioning themselves as the most clinical team in front of goal compared to their peers.

The data reveals that Arsenal’s total xG stands at 41.68, while their actual goals scored have reached an impressive 51. This gives them an xG overperformance of +9.32, the highest in the league. This statistic indicates that Arsenal’s attackers are converting chances at a rate significantly above expectations, showcasing their sharp finishing and attacking fluidity.

Following Arsenal in this overperformance category is Nottingham Forest, who have exceeded their xG by 7.72, scoring 41 goals from an xG of 33.28. Wolves are also punching above their weight, with 35 goals from an xG of 27.53, giving them an overperformance of +7.47. While these numbers are impressive, Arsenal’s margin still stands head and shoulders above the rest.

Tottenham, often lauded for their attacking prowess, have also outperformed their xG by +5.92, scoring 49 goals from an expected 43.08. Meanwhile, Manchester City, known for their clinical edge, have scored 52 goals from an xG of 47.67, resulting in a modest +4.33 performance. Arsenal’s +9.32 figure, however, suggests that Mikel Arteta’s side has found an exceptional rhythm in front of goal.

Interestingly, Liverpool, the current league leaders, have an xG of 58.04 but have scored 60 goals, giving them a +1.96 performance. While Arsenal have been more efficient in terms of converting chances, Liverpool’s higher xG indicates they create more opportunities overall.

On the other end of the spectrum, some teams have struggled to convert their chances. Manchester United have the worst xG performance, scoring only 28 goals from an xG of 35.96, a deficit of -7.96. Crystal Palace (-7.07) and Southampton (-6.57) also feature prominently in the underperformance category.

Arsenal’s overperformance can be attributed to multiple factors. Players like Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz, and Martin Ødegaard have shown remarkable composure in front of goal, converting half-chances with efficiency. Additionally, the team’s set-piece routines have been highly effective, with defenders like William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães contributing goals from corners and free-kicks.

The Gunners’ attacking efficiency has come at a crucial time, as they continue to chase Liverpool in the Premier League title race. With 51 goals scored from just 41.68 expected goals, Arsenal have maximized their opportunities—a testament to Arteta’s tactical setup and the squad’s individual brilliance.

As the season progresses, sustaining this overperformance will be key if Arsenal are to maintain their challenge at the top. While xG figures often regress to the mean over time, Arsenal fans will be hoping their side can continue defying expectations and converting chances with the same ruthlessness they’ve displayed so far.